Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Hertog Summer Study: Game B Summary

I've summed up Game A of the Hertog Summer Study as well as I could without going into boring details.  Game B had a different dynamic altogether. 

First, China came out and laid claim to the South China Sea.  They attempted to sweet talk me since I only had Natuna Besar, but wouldn't guarantee my EEZ claim against their 9 dash line.  I don't like that, and I don't like Philippines or Malaysia being threatened.
If you treat me poorly, don't be surprised when I fight back. Image from Wikipedia
The US was happy to help, but didn't have a lot of cash, and like the other game they were still a little unengaged.  Plus the PRC began building ASAT missiles, threatening the US' space dominance in the region.  During the first turn, Philippines and I kicked in enough cash to start our own space program.  By 2020, the SCS looks very unified against the PRC.

Indonesia, when it's not being cajoled by China
I stationed Indonesian troops in Visayas, crushed the Papua rebellion (game-ism that it is still appearing) and finished the space program. The Chinese moved UAVs into the SCS and began an extensive military buildup.
The world in 2025
China realized its threats didn't work, so it backed them up with force.  The Liaoning was deployed to the SCS.  I purchased F-35s from the US and stationed them on Natuna Besar, expanded US basing rights, and signed a joint statement denouncing the PRC.
The world in 2030
Not much changed by 2030.  Philippines and Indonesia purchased a targeting satellite, so we could now independently target enemy units, which really enhanced our ability to protect our waterways.  China was investing in something, but it wasn't new units.  The US focused on upgrading units.
The world in 2035
The US and Japan pushed forward.  Taiwan peacefully reunified.  The Liaoning remained in the SCS.  I bought a lot of missiles.  Everyone was geared up for war.
The world in 2040. No war...but teetering on the edge
War didn't happen.  But it is probably about to.  I hunkered down and purchased IADS to protect my airways.  One nasty thing...all the Chinese submarines on the eastern edge of Philippines are loaded with tactical nuclear weapons.

Game B ended up with a very dangerous world.  China and the US were poised for war.  Lacking allies, China relied on tactical nuclear weapons to even the score.  All we were waiting for was a reason to pull the trigger.
Yeah, that's how it feels. Image from IMDB.